Frustrated by all your bad takes, I write a Monte-Carlo analysis of whether a transformative-AI-race between the PRC and the USA would be good. To my surprise, I find that it is better than not racing. Advocating for an international project to build TAI instead of racing turns out to be good if the probability of such advocacy succeeding is ≥20%.

A common scheme for a conversation about pausing the development of transformative AI goes like this:

Abdullah: "I think we should pause the development of TAI, because if we don't it seems plausible that humanity will be disempowered by by advanced AI systems."
Benjamin: "Ah, if by “we” you refer to the United States (and and its allies, which probably don't stand a chance on their own to develop TAI), then the current geopolitical rival of the US, namely the PRC, will achieve TAI first. That [...]

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.

The original text contained 9 images which were described by AI.

---

First published:
July 2nd, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WT3u2tK2AJpYKvaZd/an-ai-race-with-china-can-be-better-than-not-racing

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“An AI Race With China Can Be Better Than Not Racing” by niplav

LessWrong (30+ Karma)