This podcast episode explores the Federal Reserve's dot plot, changes in inflation targets, the significance of the long-term DOT (neutral funds rate), the challenges in achieving the inflation target, the accuracy of labor market surveys, the impact of robotics and technology on employment, the factors influencing the outlook on inflation, the relationship between the housing market, wages, and inflation, the distinction between hard data and soft data, the causes of recessions, the performance of actively managed bond and equity funds, and the importance of active fixed income in the bond market. It delves into the dynamics within the Federal Reserve committee, highlights the complexities surrounding inflation and labor market indicators, and emphasizes the unpredictability of recessions. The episode provides insights into the factors that shape monetary policy decisions and the implications for interest rates and economic outlook.
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