This is a link post.

The AGI race has begun. We are building machines that can think and reason. By 2025/26, these machines will outpace many college graduates. By the end of the decade, they will be smarter than you or I; we will have superintelligence, in the true sense of the word.

In the link provided, Leopold Aschenbrenner explains why he believes AGI is likely to arrive within the decade, with superintelligence following soon after. He does so in some detail; the website is well-organized, but the raw pdf is over 150 pages.

Leopold is a former member of OpenAI's Superalignment team; he was fired in April for allegedly leaking company secrets. However, he contests that portrayal of events in a recent interview with Dwarkesh Patel, saying he leaked nothing of significance and was fired for other reasons.[1]

However, I am somewhat confused by the new business [...]

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
June 5th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2mrdHw6yM3h55bmhg/former-openai-superalignment-researcher-superintelligence-by

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Former OpenAI Superalignment Researcher: Superintelligence by 2030” by Julian Bradshaw

LessWrong (30+ Karma)