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Book review: Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World, by Tom Chivers.

Many have attempted to persuade the world to embrace a Bayesian worldview, but none have succeeded in reaching a broad audience.

E.T. Jaynes' book has been a leading example, but its appeal is limited to those who find calculus enjoyable, making it unsuitable for a wider readership.

Other attempts to engage a broader audience often focus on a narrower understanding, such as Bayes' Theorem, rather than the complete worldview.

Claude's most fitting recommendation was Rationality: From AI to Zombies, but at 1,813 pages, it's too long and unstructured for me to comfortably recommend to most readers. (GPT-4o's suggestions were less helpful, focusing only on resources for practical problem-solving).

Aubrey Clayton's book, Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science, only came to my attention [...]

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Outline:

(01:25) Basics

(02:24) The Replication Crisis

(03:47) Minds Approximate Bayes

(04:05) Concluding Thoughts

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First published:
May 27th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DcEThyBPZfJvC5tpp/book-review-everything-is-predictable-1

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Book review: Everything Is Predictable” by PeterMcCluskey

LessWrong (30+ Karma)