How can you better forecast the future? What are the characteristics and habits of mind of those who are the best in the world at doing it? And why are those people rarely the forecasters featured in the national and international media?

In their bestselling book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner have shared their research on the elite few who correctly predict events that have not yet happened. Dan is an award-winning journalist, an editor, and the author of two other books, Risk and Future Babble. He recently joined the Canadian Prime Minister’s office as a senior advisor.

In this episode, we talk about:

what separates superforecasters from others making predictions
the limits of even the best forecasters
the two types of forecasters -- Hedgehogs and Foxes -- and which one is better
how the intelligence community learned surprising things about their predictions
the most common mistakes of amateur forecasters
why the best forecasters are not smarter and don’t have more access to information
the role of intellectual humility in forecasting
how to learn to be a superforecaster

Dan also shares the things he’s most curious about working on next.

Episode Links

@dgardner

@ptetlock

Philip Tetlock

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

The Good Judgement Project

The Fox and the Hedgehog

George Soros

IARPA

Groupthink

John F. Kennedy

Bay of Pigs

Cuban Missile Crisis

Daniel Kahneman

Thinking Fast and Slow

CM 026: Dan Gardner on Predicting the Future

Curious Minds at Work