Separating the Cyclical from the Systemic

This podcast episode discusses the challenges of estimating long-run expected returns across markets and the importance of historical understanding. It explores the changes in capital market assumptions, particularly the acceptance of a higher inflation regime and the shift in correlations between stocks and bonds. The podcast also covers strategic and tactical asset allocation recommendations and the considerations involved in making investment decisions. Additionally, it examines the relevance of historical metrics and the impact of monetary policy and market structure on market liquidity and price efficiency.

Outlines

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Thoughts on the Market

Long-Run Expected Returns, Asset Class Returns, and Future Predictions

Understanding Nominal Returns and Correlations in Asset Class Returns

Understanding Tactical Asset Allocation and Different Horizons in Investment Strategies

The Impact of Long-Term Variables on Market Trends and the Question of Mean Reversion

Separating the Cyclical from the Systemic

Thoughts on the Market

00:00Long-Run Expected Returns, Asset Class Returns, and Future Predictions

Long-Run Expected Returns, Asset Class Returns, and Future Predictions

01:12Understanding Nominal Returns and Correlations in Asset Class Returns

Understanding Nominal Returns and Correlations in Asset Class Returns

03:18Understanding Tactical Asset Allocation and Different Horizons in Investment Strategies

Understanding Tactical Asset Allocation and Different Horizons in Investment Strategies

05:46The Impact of Long-Term Variables on Market Trends and the Question of Mean Reversion

The Impact of Long-Term Variables on Market Trends and the Question of Mean Reversion