This podcast episode discusses the shift in consensus views on the macro outlook for 2024, from initially favoring a soft landing to now leaning towards no landing. The change in consensus has been driven by better-than-expected growth and inflation data, leading to assets that benefit from higher inflation performing well. Quality remains important for leaders in the market. However, there are risks from higher treasury yields and crowding out caused by aggressive fiscal spending. The podcast concludes that opportunities may lie in underappreciated sectors like energy, which are positively levered to stickier inflation and higher interest rates. Additionally, the potential negative consequences of a no landing outcome are explored, including difficulties in accessing capital for smaller businesses, consumers, and regional banks, and overvaluation of major equity indices.
