This podcast episode explores the similarities and differences between the current interest rate cycle and the mid-1990s cycle. The speakers discuss how both cycles are characterized by a need to bring inflation down, but also highlight important differences such as the timing of inflation decline and the driving factors behind the cycles. Additionally, the speakers emphasize that monetary policy is not predetermined and that the Fed may not follow a predictable path in raising, peaking, and cutting rates. The authors also discuss the potential parallels between the current economic situation and the late 1990s, including the interest rate hikes, pauses, and pivots, as well as the potential rise in labor productivity through AI.
