This is a linkpost for https://maximumprogress.substack.com/p/the-offense-defense-balance-rarely

You’ve probably seen several conversations on X go something like this:

Michael Doomer ⏸️: Advanced AI can help anyone make bioweapons
If this technology spreads it will only take one crazy person to destroy the world!

Edward Acc ⏩: I can just ask my AI to make a vaccine

Yann LeCun: My good AI will take down your rogue AI

The disagreement here hinges on whether a technology will enable offense (bioweapons) more than defense (vaccines). Predictions of the “offense-defense balance” of future technologies, especially AI, are central in debates about techno-optimism and existential risk.

Most of these predictions rely on intuitions about how technologies like cheap biotech, drones, and digital agents would affect the ease of attacking or protecting resources. It is hard to imagine a world with AI agents searching for software vulnerabilities and autonomous drones attacking military targets without imagining a [...]

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First published:
December 9th, 2023

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Hx2Q9fWyimjrKrxyK/the-offense-defense-balance-rarely-changes

Linkpost URL:
https://maximumprogress.substack.com/p/the-offense-defense-balance-rarely

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

[Linkpost] “The Offense-Defense Balance Rarely Changes” by Maxwell Tabarrok

LessWrong (30+ Karma)