3.1 Post summary / Table of contents

Part of the Valence series.

So far in the series, we defined valence (Post 1) and talked about how it relates to the “normative” world of desires, values, preferences, and so on (Post 2). Now we move on to the “positive” world of beliefs, expectations, concepts, etc. Here, valence is no longer the sine qua non at the center of everything, as it is in the “normative” magisterium. But it still plays a leading role. Actually, two leading roles!

Section 3.2 distinguishes two paths by which valence affects beliefs: first, in its role as a control signal, and second, in its role as “interoceptive” sense data, which I discuss in turn:
Section 3.3 discusses how valence-as-a-control-signal affects beliefs. This is the domain of motivated reasoning, confirmation bias, and related phenomena. I explain how it works both in general and through a [...]

---

Outline:

(00:05) 3.1 Post summary / Table of contents

(02:08) 3.2 Two paths for normative to bleed into positive

(03:07) 3.3 Motivated reasoning / thinking / observing, including confirmation bias

(03:32) 3.3.1 Attention-control and motor-control provide loopholes through which desires can manipulate beliefs

(06:09) 3.3.2 Motivated reasoning and confirmation bias

(07:45) 3.3.3 A nuts-and-bolts model: It generally feels easy and natural to brainstorm / figure out how something might happen, when you want it to happen. Conversely, it generally feels hard and unnatural to figure out how something might happen, when you want it to not happen

(11:11) 3.3.4 Warning: the “motivation” part of “motivated reasoning / thinking / etc.” is not always what it seems

(12:29) 3.3.5 An exception: I think anxious / obsessive “brainstorming” is driven by involuntary attention rather than by valence

(17:13) 3.3.6 How does confirmation bias ever not happen?

(19:39) 3.4 Valence impacts beliefs by acting as salient sense data

(20:54) 3.4.1 When your brain clusters similar things into mental categories / concepts, valence is an important ingredient going into that clustering algorithm

(24:23) 3.4.2 Is the above a bug, or a feature?

(26:00) 3.4.3 Three roadblocks to talking and reasoning about the world separately from how we feel about it

(26:08) 3.4.3.1 In real life, many discussions are (at least in part) discussions about valence assessments—even if they appear not to be

(30:47) 3.4.3.2 Even if we’re trying to communicate and think about the world independently from how we feel about it, valence tends to become involved, via being tied up with our words and concepts

(32:08) 3.4.3.3 Treating valence as evidence about how the world works isn’t necessarily a mistake anyway

(34:24) 3.4.4 The halo effect and affect heuristic

(36:06) 3.5 Will future AI have motivated reasoning, halo effect, etc.?

(38:14) 3.6 Conclusion

The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

---

First published:
December 11th, 2023

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rM8DwFKZM4eB7i2p8/valence-series-3-valence-and-beliefs

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“[Valence series] 3. Valence & Beliefs” by Steven Byrnes

LessWrong (30+ Karma)