This is a linkpost for https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/are-there-examples-of-overhang-for

TL;DR: No.

What Do I Mean By ‘Overhang’?

Hardware Overhang for AI

One major concern about pausing AI development, from a purely safety perspective, is the possibility of hardware overhang.[1] Here is the concern as I understand it:

Suppose a policy were put in place tomorrow that banned all progress in AI capabilities anywhere in the world for the next five years.[2] Afterwards, the ban would be completely lifted.

Hardware would continue to progress during this AI pause. Immediately after the pause ended, it would be possible to train new AI systems using significantly more compute than was previously possible, taking advantage of the improved hardware. There would be a period of extremely rapid growth, or perhaps a discontinuity,[3] until the capabilities returned to their previous trend. Figure 1 shows a sketch of what we might expect progress to look like.

Figure [...]

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Outline:

(00:10) What Do I Mean By ‘Overhang’?

(00:14) Hardware Overhang for AI

(02:17) Overhang for Other Technologies

(03:47) Examples of Overhang

(03:51) Methods

(05:08) The Closest Example I Found: Land Speed Records

(07:53) Endogenous Pauses: Optical Cables and Particle Accelerators

(10:11) Prohibition of Alcohol

(11:36) Other Examples?

(12:16) Why Are There No Good Examples Of Overhang?

(12:43) There's Nothing So Permanent as a Temporary Government Program

(15:09) Dispelling the Hype

(16:42) Reduced Demand for the Input

(17:32) Conclusion

The original text contained 29 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
December 13th, 2023

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EdJoPLavfkxwrCGL3/are-there-examples-of-overhang-for-other-technologies

Linkpost URL:
https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/are-there-examples-of-overhang-for

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

[Linkpost] “Are There Examples of Overhang for Other Technologies?” by Jeffrey Heninger

LessWrong (30+ Karma)