tl;dr: There are several trends which suggest that global temperatures over the next year will experience a short-term increase, relative to the long-term increase in temperatures caused by man-made global warming.

Credits: Most of the information comes from Berkley Earth monthly temperature updates. Several people on Twitter (Robert Rohde, Zeke Hausfather, James Hansen and Roko) have also been talking about the issues discussed here for a while.

Man-made global warming has been causing a steady, long-term increase in average global temperatures since the industrial revolution. However, recently several trends are lining up which suggest that the next year/few years might experience temporary greater-than-average warming, on top of baseline man-made warming. Some of these factors are already in play and 2023 is 'virtually certain' to be the hottest year on record.

The story can be summed up in this lovely graphic from Berkley earth:

Image from: https://berkeleyearth.org/november-2023-temperature-update/

I've had a [...]

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Outline:

(01:15) El Niño

(04:11) Solar Cycles

(05:34) The Hunga-Tonga Eruption

(07:36) Reduced Sulfates from Marine Fuel Emissions

(09:38) What does this add up to?

(12:24) How bad could it be?

(14:23) Shifting the Tails

(15:07) What should be done?

(17:53) Conclusion

The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
December 29th, 2023

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kiACM88mT3tMx5TGx/will-2024-be-very-hot-should-we-be-worried

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Will 2024 be very hot? Should we be worried?” by A.H.

LessWrong (30+ Karma)