Background

Terminology: Counterfactual Impact vs “Leading The Parade”

Y’know how a parade or marching band has a person who walks in front waving a fancy-looking stick up and down? Like this guy:

The classic 80's comedy Animal House features a great scene in which a prankster steals the stick, and then leads the marching band off the main road and down a dead-end alley.

That is not the guy who's supposed to have that stick.

In the context of the movie, it's hilarious. It's also, presumably, not at all how parades actually work these days. If you happen to be “leading” a parade, and you go wandering off down a side alley, then (I claim) those following behind will be briefly confused, then ignore you and continue along the parade route. The parade leader may appear to be “leading”, but they do not have any counterfactual impact on the route [...]

---

Outline:

(00:03) Background

(00:07) Terminology: Counterfactual Impact vs “Leading The Parade”

(01:27) Examples

(01:31) Research

(03:15) Politics and Activism

(04:59) Business

(07:42) Status is a Terrible Proxy for Counterfactual Impact

(09:55) A Missing Mood

(11:21) A Project I’d Like To See

(13:34) What If Leading The Parade Grants Counterfactual Impact Later?

---

First published:
January 31st, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LKC3XfWxPzZXK7Esd/leading-the-parade

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Leading The Parade” by johnswentworth

LessWrong (30+ Karma)