(Or: sometimes heuristics are no substitute for a deep dive into all of the available information).

This post is a response to Roko's recent series of posts (Brute Force Manufactured Consensus is Hiding the Crime of the Century, The Math of Suspicious Coincidences, and A Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation On How Unlikely The Circumstantial Evidence Around Covid-19 Is); however, I made a separate post for a few reasons.

I think it's in-depth enough to warrant its own post, rather than making comments
It contains content that is not just a direct response to these posts
It's important, because those posts seem to have gotten a lot of attention and I think they're very wrong.

Additional note: Much of this information is from the recent Rootclaim debate; if you've already seen that, you may be familiar with some of what I'm saying. If you haven't, I strongly recommend it. [...]

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Outline:

(01:08) The use of coincidences in Bayesian reasoning

(05:21) None of this is special

(05:59) The coincidence of Covid-19 starting in Wuhan

(10:09) Timing

(13:40) Independence

(14:04) Viral features

(17:17) Intermezzo: Bias in sources

(18:16) These sorts of arguments are easy to make

(19:49) I doubt anyone takes these numbers seriously

(23:27) Conclusion

(24:31) Addendum: Debate Results

(25:09) Appendix: Genetic features

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.

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First published:
February 19th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NrKQGyggC7jcersuJ/on-coincidences-and-bayesian-reasoning-as-applied-to-the

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“On coincidences and Bayesian reasoning, as applied to the origins of COVID-19” by viking_math

LessWrong (30+ Karma)