Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.

Disclaimer: While some participants and organizers of this exercise work in industry, no proprietary info was used to inform these scenarios, and they represent the views of their individual authors alone.

Overview

In the vein of What 2026 Looks Like and AI Timelines discussion, we recently hosted a scenario forecasting workshop. Participants first wrote a 5-stage scenario forecasting what will happen between now and ASI. Then, they reviewed, discussed, and revised scenarios in groups of 3. The discussion was guided by forecasts like “If I were to observe this person's scenario through stage X, what would my ASI timelines median be?”.

Instructions for running the workshop including notes on what we would do differently are available here. We’ve put 6 shared scenarios from our workshop in a publicly viewable folder here.

Motivation

Writing scenarios may help to:

[...]

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Outline:

(00:27) Overview

(01:09) Motivation

(01:59) Running the workshop

(02:47) Workshop outputs and learnings

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First published:
March 8th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTLCnmogMhFXgSPJ7/scenario-forecasting-workshop-materials-and-learnings

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Scenario Forecasting Workshop: Materials and Learnings” by elifland, charlie_griffin

LessWrong (30+ Karma)