MacroVoices #404 David Rosenberg: The Bond Bullion Barbell

This podcast discusses the current market trends and geopolitical factors, focusing on topics such as the persistence of the bear market, the impact of inflation and economic growth, and the outlook for commodities. The episode also explores the intricacies of geopolitical influences on investment decisions and the significance of mean reversion in various financial indicators. Takeaways • The bear market is not over, and a recession is still likely. • Earnings estimates are expected to decline in the next four quarters, negatively impacting the market. • The potential for a reacceleration of economic growth and inflation is unlikely in the near term. • Downside insurance in the stock market is currently undervalued. • The recent plunge in oil prices cannot be solely attributed to the shift to electric vehicles. • A secular bull market in defense stocks is possible due to rising government defense budgets. • The yield curve is expected to revert to its more normal shape, with long-term rates falling and short-term rates rising. • Gold and uranium are expected to perform well in 2024 due to declining real interest rates and a weaker US dollar. • OPEC Plus decisions are generally made before the meeting, and the meeting serves to codify an agreement between the members. • The VIX is currently at a multi-year low, presenting an opportunity for investors to buy insurance for their portfolios.